Coping with the shortage of jobs in the s, 14 March COM 83 Community industrial strategy, 16 March The economic and social situation in the Community, 14 March Internal market problems, 15 March Related documents: Solemn Declaration on European Union. Telecommunications, 9 June Further guidelines for the development of the Common Agricultural Policy, 20 June The economic and social situation in the Community, 20 June Prospects for the development of new policies, 20 June Acid depositions, 8 June Biotechnology: the Community's role, 8 June Dossier: Preparations, summary, reactions, outline of proposals on agriculture.
Report and proposals on ways of increasing the effectiveness of the Community's Structural Funds, 28 July Common Agricultural Policy: Commission report and proposals, 28 July Discussion paper for the special Council meeting of September on the questions of improving the international competitive position of European firms, 14 September Community measures to improve the international competitiveness of European firms, 29 September Communication from the Commission to the Council on telecommunications - lines of action, 29 September The economic and social situation in the Community, 28 November European Union annual report of the Commission , 2 December Follow-up to Athens, 22 December The future financing of the Community, 4 February The future financing of the Community - draft decision on new own resources, 6 May Budget discipline, 5 March COM 84 Future financing of the Community, 5 March Dossier: Conclusions, summary, results, reactions, European passport.
Related documents: COM 84 Consolidating the internal market, 9 July The economic and social situation in the Community, 9 July Community research priorities, 24 May A people's Europe: implementing the conclusions of the Fontainebleau European Council, 24 September Dossier: Conclusions, summary, results, reactions, conclusions on budgetary discipline, statement by Gerret Fitzgerald. The economic and social situation in the Community, 29 November European Union - annual report by the Commission , 30 November A people's Europe: Reports from the ad hoc Committee. Dossier: Conclusions, summary, reactions.
Related documents: Integrated Mediterranean programmes, Commission communication of 20 February COM 85 The economic and social situation in the Community, 19 March Strengthening the technological base and competitiveness of Community industry, 19 March A Europe-wide environment policy, 19 March Related documents: COM 85 Communication from the Commission to the European Council on the strengthening of technical cooperation in Europe, 24 June Completing the internal market.
Famine in Africa, 21 June Dossier: Conclusions, summary, reaction. Related documents: The Intergovernmental Conference: the background and the issues, November Commission papers for the Conference of the Governments of the Member States. Press Kit, Luxembourg Council, December Commission opinion of 22 July on the proposal for amendments to the Treaty establishing the European Economic presented by the government of the Grand Duchy of Luxembourg.
European Union annual report by the Commission , 28 November Communication from the Commission to the Council on a people's Europe, 19 November Related documents: COM 86 Economic and social problems in the Community, 20 June COM 86 A people's Europe, 20 June Progress towards the creation of an area without frontiers, 20 June Agriculture in the world context, 20 June Completing an area without frontiers, 26 November Short-term economic prospects at the international level and for the Community, 26 November Dossier: Conclusions, summary, reactions, background paper on the Commission communication The Single Act: A new frontier.
Related documents: COM 87 The Singe Act: a new frontier for Europe, 15 February COM 87 Report by the Commission to the Council and Parliament on the financing of the Community budget, 28 February Own resources decision, 31 July Review of action taken to control the agricultural market and outlook for the common agricultural policy, 3 August Reform of the structural funds, 24 August Commission communication on budgetary discipline, 4 August Related documents: COM 88 Internal market and industrial cooperation - Statute for the European company - Internal market white paper, point memorandum from the Commission to Parliament, the Council and the two sides of industry , 8 June COM 88 Completing the internal market: an area without internal frontiers, 17 November SEC 88 Social dimension of the internal market, 14 September Europe Europe world partner, 19 October Related documents: COM 89 Summary report on the comparative study on rules governing working conditions in the member states, 6 July COM 89 Report on economic and monetary union in the European Community, 17 April Dossier: Summary of the meeting, summary of the Paris meeting of the G-7, July Communication from the Commission concerning its action programme relating to the implementation of the Community Charter of Basic Social Rights for Workers, 29 November Related documents: SEC 90 The Community and German unification, 20 April The Community and German unification: implications of the Staatsvertrag, 14 June COM 90 Community response to the special cooperation plan presented by Colombia, 22 June ROME, October Related documents: COM 90 Commission opinion on political union, 21 October Association agreements with the countries of central and eastern Europe: a general outline, 27 August Global proposal of the European Community on the long term objectives for the multilateral negotiation on agricultural questions, December Economic and monetary union, 21 August Completing the internal market: an area without internal frontiers, 23 November Towards trans-European networks: for a Community action programme, 10 December Memorandum on the rationalization and coordination of vocational training programmes at Community level, 21 August SEC 90 Policies on immigration and the social integration of migrants in the European Community: expert's report, 28 September Dossier: Summary of the meeting.
Related Documents: SEC 91 Human rights, democracy and development cooperation policy, 25 March Convention determining the State responsible for examining applications for asylum lodged in one of the Member States of the European Communities, Official Journal C , 19 August COM 91 Sixth report of the Commission Related documents: SEC 91 Commission communication to the Council and the European Parliament on immigration, 23 October Related documents: European and the challenge of enlargement, 24 June Democracy and Development. Resolution of the Council and of the Member States meeting in the Council on human rights, democracy and development, Bulletin of the European Communities No.
SEC 92 The future of relations between the Community and the Maghreb, 30 April From the Single Act to Maastricht and beyond: the means to match our ambitions, 11 February COM 92 Application of the interinstitutional agreement of 29 June on budgetary discipline and improvement of the budgetary procedure. Proposals for renewal. Report presented by the Commission under Point 19 of the argument. The Community's finances between now and , 10 March The system of own resources. Community structural policies: assessment and outlook, 18 March Related documents: SEC 92 The principle of subsidiarity, 27 October Operation of the Community's internal market after follow-up to the Sutherland Report, 2 December Towards a closer association with the countries of Central and Eastern Europe, 2 December Related documents: COM 92 Communication from the Commission concerning the creation of a European combined transport network and its operating conditions, 11 June COM 93 Public access to the institutions' documents, 5 May SEC 93 , 18 May Related documents: COM 93 Commission report to the European Council on the adaptation of Community legislation to the subsidiarity principle, 2 November Making the most of the internal market: strategic programme, 22 December Growth, competitiveness, employment: the challenges and ways forward into the 21st century - White Paper, 5 December Interinstitutional declaration on democracy, transparency and subsidiarity, 25 October The development of guidelines for the trans-European transport network, 21 December Trans-European networks.
Interim report of the group of personal representatives of the Heads of State or Government to the Corfu European Council.
Accept Refuse. Whereas, in the interests of greater comparability, it is also necessary that the content of the various balance sheet and off-balance sheet items be determined precisely;. The Council reviewed the in-depth study by the Finance Committee of this important, delicate and difficult problem. Time-Series Evidence from Sixteen Countries. They shall forthwith inform the Commission thereof. Paul Romer, Biotechnology: the Community's role, 8 June
Bulletin of the European Communities, Supplement No. Progress report on employment: results of Mr. COM 94 Integrated programme in favour of SMEs and the craft sector, 3 June SEC 94 Financing the trans-European networks, 15 June Related documents: COM 94 Follow-up to Commission Communication on "The Europe Agreements and beyond: a strategy to prepare the countries of central and eastern Europe for accession", July 27, The Europe Agreements and beyond: a strategy to prepare the countries of central and eastern Europe for accession, 13 July Towards a new Asia strategy, 13 July Strengthening the Mediterranean policy of the European Union: establishing a Euro-Mediterranean partnership, 19 October The European Community and Mercosur: an enhanced policy, 19 October Communication from the Commission to the Council and the European Parliament on a European Union action plan to combat drugs , 23 June The illicit traffic in radioactive substances and nuclear materials, 7 September A special support programme for peace and reconciliation in Northern Ireland, 7 December The Council, therefore, made a strong appeal to the government of the main contributor country to see its way to reversing the effects of this legislation and finding the necessary means, as early as possible, to honour the payment of its assessed contribution.
The Council also appealed to all other Member Nations to settle without delay any arrears in their contributions and to endeavour to effect future payments as expeditiously as possible. The Council agreed that, in view of projected income shortfalls of such magnitude, the Director-General was compelled to address a situation of force majeure. The gravity of the situation, the certainty of a cash flow problem before the end of the biennium, and the prospect of an even more severe liquidity problem in early , called for determined action.
Annual Review Discover what impact our research had around the world last year through stories, videos and more. Interactive tool Report Blog Animation Infographics. Briefing papers More on migration. Sort by: Field Relevancy Date. Direction Ascending Descending. The ADF was used to test for stationarity of these series as it provides a superior test to DF, especially in case the residuals of the regression could be serially correlated.
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The lag length has been automatically selected by AIC from nine proposed lags and all three possibilities have been tested: neither intercept nor trend, intercept but no trend and both intercept and trend. In all cases, results were found similar irrespective of the model used. Therefore, VAR in levels cannot be applied. In econometric literature, it is not clear whether cointegration should be applied to only series integrated of the same order.
Though Verbeck noted that the concept of cointegration can be applied to nonstationary integrated time series only and Dickey et al, quoted by Gujarati , stipulated that Cointegration deals with the relationship among a group of variables, where unconditionally each has a unit root, however Brooks stressed that it is also possible to combine levels and first differenced terms in a VECM.
The later therefore illustrates that cointegration can exist among variables not integrated of the same order. Heij et al developed the mathematical proof of this view where they asserted that a cointegration relationship exists between stationary and nonstationary variables. As some variables are stationary and others not, Johansen cointegration test has been used to determine whether there exists a long-run relationship between these variables.
This test was preferred to Engle-Granger approach because in case of five variables we may have more than one cointegrating relationship Brooks, Johansen trace test was used on the number of cointegrating relations with null hypothesis of no cointegration between series against the alternative hypothesis of existence of cointegration between the series.
All variables enter the cointegration analysis in levels. This table depicts cointegrating vectors for each model with 4 lags. All five possibilities about the nature of deterministic trend assumption suggest that the series are cointegrated. At least there is one cointegrating factor except the Max-Eig method with neither intercept nor trend in data, which is unlikely to.
The subsequent step is to determine whether an intercept or trend or both are included in the cointegrating relationship and to present the results of the selected model. The analysis of the nature of trend conducted showed that all variables except GRATE have significant intercept and trend. After estimating the selected model of both intercept and trend with 3 lags selected by AIC, the results were as follows:.
Trace test indicates 1 cointegrating eqn s at the 0.
click The statistic of But the 2 nd row shows that the null hypothesis of at most one cointegrating vector can not be rejected as trace statistic of Therefore, there exists one cointegrating relation which means that the rank of the matrix r is one. The results from trace test were the same if maximum eigenvalue test was considered. As there is one cointegrating vector, this allows us to estimate a VECM, in line with advice of Brooks of not using models in differences when cointegration is present, as this flows away important information and have no long-run solution.
Noting that as data are annual observations, a maximum of 4 lags is reasonable, as suggested by Brooks based on the frequency of the observation and AIC picked 3 lags. In all equations, the cointegrating equation has a negative sign as expected and significant in three out of five equations. However, as noted by Brooks , evaluation of the significance of variables in a VECM is based on the joint tests on all of the lags of a variable in the equation rather than individual coefficient estimates. Therefore we proceed to F test as indicated in the table below:.
Critical values of F-statistic are taken from F-statistic table provided by Gujarati and are 3. The VECM. The results suggest that there exist: a long-run relationship between growth rate of real per capita GDP and proxies of financial development, a long-run relationship between financial depth, rate of growth of real per capita GDP and other included measures of financial development and the same applies to financial sophistication. The test is meant to detect any short-term relationship between the variables and it is applied to test whether the changes in one variable can cause changes in another variable and vice-versa.
As there is a long-run relationship between variables, the error correction term will be included in the Granger causality test for estimating a short-run relationship. It is worth noting that Granger causality test should be applied to stationary series Sinha and Macri, Therefore, we have applied this test with differences in non-stationary series.
The model to be estimated is:. The Engle-Granger causality suggests that in short-term, there is unidirectional causality from financial deepening to growth rate of real per capita GDP and bidirectional feedback between financial sophistication and growth rate of real per capita GDP.
But other proxies of financial development do not seem to have affected economic growth, or being affected by economic growth. The Granger Causality solves the problem of existence or not of variables with significant lags in the model but will not indicate whether there is a positive or a negative relationship between variables or how long the effects will take place. Fortunately, this information is given by Variance decomposition and Impulse responses. Gebhard and Wolters define variance decompositions as a determinant of how much the s-step-ahead forecast error variance of a given variable is.
The estimated variance decompositions are as follows:. From the first period, the shocks in GDP growth rate account for 6. From the above table, the shocks in growth rate of GDP account for However, this order changes over time as financial depth takes over growth rate of GDP in explaining changes in financial sophistication. In fact, starting from the third period, shocks in financial depth lead to variability in financial sophistication by Shocks from Financial sophistication have a strong influence on PRIVATE and account for more than a half of total shocks from the fourth period onwards.
Gebhard and Wolters define impulse responses as the measure of the effect of a unit shock of the variable i at time t on the variable j in later periods. So for each variable from each equation separately, a unit shock is applied to the error term and the effects upon the VAR system over time are noted.
Details of impulse responses are presented in appendices and their summarized results are:. Unfortunately, the main drawback of Variance decomposition and Impulse responses is that if the variable order is altered the results will change too. For independent results from variable order, a priori knowledge about the order is required, but not easy in most interdependent financial time series data.
The tests revealed a long-run relationship between the Growth rate of real per capita GDP and 4 proxies of financial development. Precisely, financial. This implies that as the economy allocates more credit to the private sector, as new financial instruments are introduced in Rwandan financial system, with time, then the level of economic growth will be affected.
The causality test, Variance decomposition and impulse responses show that financial deepening influences positively economic growth. But no bidirectional causality detected from growth rate of GDP to financial deepening. These results confirm the importance of the level of financial depth for Rwandan economic growth, unlikely to the conclusion of some researchers who used panel data analysis and affirmed the irrelevance of the level of financial deepening on economic growth for Sub-Saharan Africa and poor countries in general, as noted by Hassan and Jung-Suk and Michael and Giovanni Our results do agree with the conclusions of Zhang et al in China, Demetriades and Luintel in India and Sakutukwa in Zimbabwe.
The causality test and variance decomposition showed a bi-directional influence between the level of financial sophistication and economic growth. Surprisingly, impulse responses show that this relationship is negative and a mere interpretation may conclude that financial sophistication aggravates economic growth. The used growth rate of real per capita GDP excludes effects of inflation and the increase in the ratio of M2 to M1 used as proxy of financial sophistication could imply increase in money supply due to inflationary pressure rather than financial innovation.
This is the case for Rwanda where post genocide economy was characterized by high rate of inflation and volatility in exchange rate. Despite the increase in the quasi-money which resulted in the increase of the ratio of M2 to M1, there was no E-banking in Rwanda up to , no remarkable new financial instruments and ATM cards were recent in few banks, in major towns only.
No link was found between economic growth and allocation of credit. Were the relationships to be established by Granger causality, the impulse responses. These findings of negative relationship between credit allocation and economic growth conquer with findings of Karima and Holden , in a panel of 30 developing countries.